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Old 02-03-2021, 11:40 AM   #1161
toleolu
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Every now and then, I get a glimpse of what we old computer geeks had in mind when we thought we were going to change the world. I think this thread, for the most part, is a good example of that.

Here I sit in my little man cave and I can communicate with people all over the planet. I can find out, first hand, what's happening where they live without having to rely on what government or corporations think I need to know.

As someone who grew up the 3 TV channels and a local newspaper, I think that's pretty cool. If the price I have to pay for it is some people bitching at each every now and then, that's fine with me.

The anonymity of the internet allows people to give full voice to their inner demons, (and we all have them) in ways they would never dare in personal interactions.

Maybe keep that in mind and not let that be the reason you miss out on what really is a remarkable tool for helping you better understand what's really going on.
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Old 02-03-2021, 11:46 AM   #1162
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There are multiple peer-reviewed scientific studies using random controlled trials over years that conclude masks are not effective in preventing respiratory virus transmission.
You don't understand what you're reading.

You should think about how you're going to set up a double blind study of people who always wear masks in public vs. people who don't wear masks in public, and *how you're going to gather data about how they affected transmission to others*.

Get it?

Wear a mask, like the majority of virologists and epidemiologists recommend you do.
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WEAR A FRAKKING MASK!!!!
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Old 02-03-2021, 11:52 AM   #1163
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Originally Posted by toleolu View Post
The anonymity of the internet allows people to give full voice to their inner demons, (and we all have them) in ways they would never dare in personal interactions.
I have to give credit to Black Magic Design on their board for doing something I have been advising admins on forums to do for decades:

require people to use their real names.
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Old 02-03-2021, 11:59 AM   #1164
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Originally Posted by toleolu View Post
What's happening where they live without having to rely on what government or corporations think I need to know.

As someone who grew up the 3 TV channels and a local newspaper, I think that's pretty cool. If the price I have to pay for it is some people bitching at each every now and then, that's fine with me.

The anonymity of the internet allows people to give full voice to their inner demons, (and we all have them) in ways they would never dare in personal interactions.

Maybe keep that in mind and not let that be the reason you miss out on what really is a remarkable tool for helping you better understand what's really going on.
THREE CHANNELS! You had it all! (posts four yorkshiremen sketch again)

I think many of us here are in the same age bracket where we can say that. I know I am.

As for being a source of whats really going on... I can give you as much completely biased takes on whats happening in the UK as the next bit of mass media we dont trust. Anyone on the net is just as unreliable, just as likely to be completely misinformed and only talking from their own incredibly limited perspective with all the confirmation bias that brings, and its likely that the people we make friends with, or like conversing with on the net are just as full of all that stuff as we are. We dont generally seek out people we completely fundamentally disagree with as friends. People are just as informed by govt and corporations. Just as completely biased. One persons ideas of what is going in the UK, for instance, does not reflect another's.

Whats really going on?

Nebulous spooky talk!

Did you get an exciting fourth tv channel or a flood of loads of channels? We got one more channel, the imaginatively titled Channel 4 Followed years later by, you guessed it, Channel 5
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Old 02-03-2021, 12:03 PM   #1165
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Originally Posted by chip mcdonald View Post
I have to give credit to Black Magic Design on their board for doing something I have been advising admins on forums to do for decades:

require people to use their real names.
Possibly either this, or unless its a forum thats a free for all, dogmatically on topic moderating
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Old 02-03-2021, 12:31 PM   #1166
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Originally Posted by maxdembo View Post
Are there any other stats maths you've done that you can point out to show your skills and experience tho?

There is a vast chasm between asking if someone has the skills to really compile all this data and draw the correct conclusions, and me thinking its an unknowable witchcraft. There are lot of amateurs in this field regarding themselves and their own findings as facts. Your point about masks would call into question any data gathering youre doing, or non bias in methods of working.

Working out all this data is a big job, its not necessarily just self confessedly being good at maths.

I am certainly not calling you out or attempting to be offensive, I am merely trying to figure out if you have experience and a track record in this or if you just did some sums and came up with some confusions.

The latter is more likely to just muddy the waters rather than provide any clarity. If its the latter, the findings deserve every kind of scrutiny that would include working methods and whether one knows what theyre doing or not.
No, of course not. I have already said that I am not a statistician.
I can compare prepared statistical data, such as absolute death rates per age group, or make them comparable. And I can see from this that the number of those who die is not exceptionally high in Europe. You don't have to have a PhD in statistics to do that. That's grade school level math and common sense. What you can't do, and I'm well aware of this, you can't use it to gain deeper insights into more complex relationships - for example, whether and to what extent lockdown or wearing masks has an influence in this context - THAT is the job of statisticians!
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Old 02-03-2021, 12:47 PM   #1167
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To the sort of person who is claiming masks are ineffective at preventing the spread of Coronavirus, especially anyone claiming that "basic math" and "common sense" are all that's needed to understand a scientific publication (which is false, by the way):

People have problems understanding science, reading scientific publications. So they tend to rely on interpretations of various news sources. Whether the news source is more legitimate or not, mistakes in interpretation can be made (journalists aren't scientists, after all), and sometimes the interpretation is intentionally skewed. Plus, most news sources on the Internet are horribly bad at reporting science since the bar is so much lower, in terms of getting something "published". A fancy-looking website with "health", "medicine" (etc.) in the URL doesn't mean it's a legitimate source of information. Most people don't even know how to find valid information about scientific studies, and would be ashamed to realize the majority of "science websites" misinterpret or misrepresent the facts.

Here's one example:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ed/3643312001/

Read the entire article, and you'll get to the punch line.

There are countless examples of this, in just about every aspect of science. And now we have to deal with this sort of nonsense about masks. The Internet is virtually clogged with bad information on sites masquerading as legitimate, fact-checked news sources. The reality is that good sources of scientific information are relatively few, and you have to know which ones to trust.

If you don't know how to read scientific publications and are relying on some kind of news source: you absolutely need to fact check it. And don't cherry pick or use confirmation bias during that fact checking (which I definitely know some of you are doing). If you can't properly fact check a claim based on a scientific publication, your only option is to read the publication in its entirety and understand it completely (which requires you to understand all the language, statistics, and the way the facts are presented). Good luck with that; these studies aren't meant to be understood by the layperson.

So stop pretending you understand everything, then parrot some vlog or horrible news source, misinforming people.

Masks are effective, when used as part of a strategy to reduce the spread of Coronavirus and other germs for that matter. Masks alone won't solve this, but they're part of the progress we can make--IF you do your part. If you don't do your part: you're a hole in the sieve, impeding society's efforts.

Even if you don't believe masks can help: wear them anyway. Time to put on your big-boy pants and show society you're willing to do the smallest thing on your behalf to help people from dying. You can at least pretend you care.
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Old 02-03-2021, 12:52 PM   #1168
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Originally Posted by maxdembo View Post
Whats really going on?

Nebulous spooky talk!

Did you get an exciting fourth tv channel or a flood of loads of channels? We got one more channel, the imaginatively titled Channel 4 Followed years later by, you guessed it, Channel 5
Good point. "What's really going on" was a bad choice of words. Obviously none of us knows what's "really" going on. But then again, we never did.

I was referring more to others personal experiences. The idea of bringing people closer is getting to know them better. I don't need your entire life's history or total world view on things. Just enough to know that you're really not that much different than I am.

Actually we had 4 Channels, I forgot about the Public channel. We did get a 5th channel. It was what was referred to in the US as a UHF channel. That was a big deal, but then they started running cable where I lived in the early 80's.

Where I mostly grew up was pretty wide open and rural so there was a lot of satellite tv too.
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Old 02-03-2021, 12:54 PM   #1169
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No, of course not. I have already said that I am not a statistician.
I can compare prepared statistical data, such as absolute death rates per age group, or make them comparable. And I can see from this that the number of those who die is not exceptionally high in Europe. You don't have to have a PhD in statistics to do that. That's grade school level math and common sense.
Not a statistician and what youre doing is grade school level maths and common sense.

Absolutely no offence meant, I just wanted some extra details to help assess whether you know what youre doing or not with stats, the responses sounds more like you have faith in your findings, despite originally asking what you might be missing and then saying your interpretation is the level of a school child. It sounds more like you have a point youre making, rather than genuinely wondering what your missing, it takes me a while to figure other peoples communication out so thank you for providing more info.

And yes, it sounds like you are likely missing a great deal in your interpretation of the data.

As for the masks comment, others have responded to that nonsense already.
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Old 02-03-2021, 12:55 PM   #1170
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“You don't understand what you're reading.”

you know that how?


“You should think about how you're going to set up a double blind study of people who always wear masks in public vs. people who don't wear masks in public, and *how you're going to gather data about how they affected transmission to others*.”

So a proper scientific study evaluating the efficacy of masks is impossible?


Quote:

Wear a mask, like the majority of virologists and epidemiologists recommend you do.
Is science decided by a vote? I can find plenty of respected and well-credentialed PhDs and MDs in relevant fields that say the harms of wearing a mask outweigh any benefits, both on a personal level and on a societal one.

I think we would agree that the way people wear masks, and the type of mask they wear, is determinative as to masks’ effectiveness. And the vast majority of people neither wear the right type, nor do they wear it correctly.
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